Trump Convicted: An Unbiased Analysis

Former President (and leading candidate to be President again) Donald Trump has been found guilty in New York of falsifying business records. 34 felony counts.

As always, my personal views on politics are as unbiased as you will find. I don’t care about Trump or Biden. I don’t care about Republicans or Democrats. I care about the country and how political decisions will affect normal Americans and markets. If you are looking for an echo chamber or someone to blindly reinforce your views, this is not the place. Let’s dive in…

The Case:

First off, this entire situation is awful for our country. It truly can’t be overstated. Politics in America continues to spiral lower and horrible new precedents are now constantly being set. In terms of the the case itself, it should have never been brought. That is just the simple, unbiased reality.

Evidence vs Legality.

While the evidence presented does suggest that Trump could have been found guilty, if so, it should have been a misdemeanor. Falsifying business records is indeed a misdemeanor offense in New York State. However, this case was already turned down previously and was now outside the statute of limitations. So… Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (who promised many times to go after Donald Tump) “trumped” up the charges to classify it as a felony. This allowed him to bring the case back in the year of our Lord, 2024. On top of that, there were some legitimate and valid concerns brought up by Trump about the Judge on the case, Juan Merchan. He is a past Democratic donor and his daughter was a Democratic operative. She helped fundraise for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Judge Merchan should have recused himself from the case based on the optics alone, even if he was truly impartial, for the benefit of the court system and public trust.

To anyone unbiased and honest, it is very clear what Alvin Bragg and New York did here. As I said, even if the evidence shows that Trump did falsify the business record, which the jury did conclude, the legality of this case is the problem. They bent the rules and boosted an old misdemeanor into a felony in an attempt to finally get Trump on something. They did this knowing that it would take place just months before the election. As Fareed Zakaria of CNN said, “I seriously doubt that this New York trial would have been brought against any defendant whose name was not Donald Trump.” That is of course, true.

To me personally, this was a political persecution. Plain and simple. In a city that is now known for not prosecuting even violent offenders, they chose to go after Donald Trump for a decade old misdemeanor. It is absolutely absurd that this is the first time we have convicted a former President with a felony. Not because we shouldn’t hold our leaders accountable, but because we never charged or convicted past US Presidents for anything. Not for the Iran/Afghanistan wars, for CIA coups, for countless war crimes, illegal drone strikes or for spying on American citizens. But now… this is where we draw the line? We convict Donald Trump for falsifying business records related to a payment to hide a porn star’s NDA? Either we should hold them all accountable for their crimes or continue holding none. No one is above the law, but no one is below it either. Bending the rules and law to target one man specifically is unjust, un-American and completely destroys the public’s trust in our legal system.

2024 Election:

How will Trump being a convicted felon affect the election this November? Very simple. It will help Trump. I always call these things as I see them. Truly unbiased and objective. I said that Trump would beat Hillary in 2016 and was laughed at. I then said that Biden would beat Trump in 2020. Well, as we sit here today, Trump is going to win on November 5th. And by a lot.

The Biden “never-Trump” voters did not change today. The Trump “MAGA” voters did not change today. Who did change today?

• Independents

• Moderate Republicans (who maybe supported Nikki Haley in the primary)

• Minorities (a growing voter block for Trump)

More voters in all of these groups will lean towards Trump than Biden based on this trial. These are Americans who do not like seeing our criminal justice system being used as a weapon. They don’t like the image of America becoming a “banana republic”. Some may have wanted Trump to lose at the ballot box in November, but they did not want it to be decided in the courts. Again, whether the justice system is actually being rigged or not really doesn’t matter. The image matters. And the image helps Trump.

This is Polymarket, one of the largest and most liquid political betting markets. Trump’s odds to win barely budged after the conviction. These markets are often more accurate than the polls and also react much faster to new information. It is possible that Biden and Trump may move in the polls by a few percentage points, but it will mostly be noise. I expect any movement from this conviction to fade over the next month anyway, as the focus will quickly shift onto the first presidential debate at the end of June.

America Moving Forward:

As I said at the top, this is awful for America as a nation. Today’s disgusting political environment and weak political leaders will cause us to spiral further. The two parties are so polarized that they literally can’t be trusted to be put our country ahead of themselves. Whether it is impeachment, packing the Supreme Court or now using the justice system to target political enemies, new precedents are being set that will only make the current decline worse. Another Pandora’s box opened.

Lastly, the public’s trust in our nation’s institutions will fall even further over the coming years. It has already collapsed over the last 2 decades due to blatant corruption and ineptitude, but that trend will only accelerate from here. Instead of realizing where we are and acting like mature adults to help rebuild trust, our current “leaders” (on both sides) are simply using whatever is left of America’s prestige to attack their political opponents and secure power for themselves. If you study history, you may have an idea about where America is today in the cycle of great nations. Either way, the second half of 2024 will be something for the history books.