The Death of Joe Biden (politically)
First off, my personal views on politics are as unbiased as you will find. I don’t care about Trump or Biden. I don’t care about Republicans or Democrats. I care about the country and how political decisions will affect normal Americans and markets. Now…
What happened on last night’s debate stage can not be overstated. It was without a doubt the most disastrous political performance I have ever seen in my life. Joe Biden came out and within seconds sounded as if he could die tomorrow. I thought for a moment that he may just have to cough and that it would pass, but as they moved onto the 2nd question, it continued. He then quickly got confused and forgot what he was saying halfway through his response, and from there it only got worse. On the biggest political stage in our nation’s history, the sitting President of the United States crumbled.
Trump did not have a very strong performance himself, but that simply didn’t matter.
Just minutes into the debate, already sounding weak and lost, Biden completely botched his talking points on the economy. He was getting his rehearsed statistics wrong, mixing up millions/billions/trillions several times, and unable to discuss his own key healthcare initiatives. He then brought up the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal on his own! We were watching political suicide. He even followed it up later by saying that no US soldiers died under his watch, which of course is absurdly wrong and disrespects the 13 US men and women who died during the very withdrawal he had just brought up.
Several times throughout the night, Biden finished his answers roughly halfway through his 2 minutes of allotted time. CNN’s Jake Tapper had to actually remind him twice that he still had a minute or so left to speak. It was simply unreal to watch. Biden has been tucked away at Camp David for over a WEEK preparing for this debate. Even with the excessive preparation, he couldn’t speak for more than 60 seconds on the biggest and most important issues that everyone in America knew would come up.
Whenever he wasn’t speaking (or mumbling), he was standing frozen behind his podium, mouth open, and never blinking. He looked like a zombie. Barely alive.
When immigration was finally brought up, Biden got the first opportunity to speak and defend his actions (inactions). In my opinion, immigration and the border is the biggest issue in this election and his campaign staff knew it would be a centerpiece of this debate. So how did Biden the 50-year career politician tackle it? He stuttered and mumbled absolute nonsense for about 45 seconds, falsely claimed that the Border Patrol endorsed him, and then quickly turned the mic back over to Trump. I have never seen anything like it. This wasn’t a scared high school freshman in a debate club. This was the sitting President of the United States. Biden’s staff must have been watching in horror backstage. America’s top election issue that they likely spent days rehearsing his answer for… and he said nothing. Trump immediately hit him back with, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence, and I don’t think he knows what he said either.” Brutal. It was hard to watch.
Biden was already in serious trouble coming into last night’s debate. He is the most unpopular President in modern history and polling has him down in basically every single swing state. Last night’s slow-moving car crash only set him back further, likely with every voter block imaginable. Incredibly, just 2 hours before the debate CNN and MSNBC were discussing how Biden could easily beat his low set expectations and hit against Trump hard. Democratic politicians were on air defending Biden as a strong and commanding leader (behind closed doors). Well… immediately after the debate ended, CNN and MSNBC were in a full blown panic with both channels and their “sources” discussing the possibility of Biden dropping out of the 2024 race.
So what happens now? In my opinion, Biden is done. His campaign officially died last night. It was likely dead before, but now it’s buried in the ground.
The Democrats have 2 options in front of them:
They run Biden
They replace him before the convention in August
If they go with #1, they will lose in a national landslide. I called it after Trump was indicted and then convicted. Nate Silver called it this week. This debate was the final nail in the coffin. However, if they go with #2, the question then becomes who do they replace him with. That is what Democratic strategists and big money donors are discussing behind closed doors today as you read this. They have 2 obvious choices. First, Kamala Harris. To be blunt, if they run the Vice President she is very likely to lose and possibly even worse than Biden will. She is already incredibly unpopular and simply not likable enough to change minds. Second, Gavin Newsom. If done correctly, I believe he could actually win. He is tall, attractive, young and well-spoken. It’s the JFK effect. His terrible policies and low approval in California won’t matter. The Presidential election is a giant popularity contest and I think he could have a legitimate chance of beating Trump.
It’s also possible that the Democratic Party did this on purpose. Small possibility, but a real one. They refused to hold a primary and shut down all talk of Biden’s age and fitness for office, only to move up the first debate to the earliest date in history and throw him into the fire. They might have done this so they had the ability and time to slide in their preferred replacement candidate without the voters getting in the way. I believe they call it, “protecting Democracy”.
Regardless of their choice, Biden is now done. His campaign is dead. I put some lunch money (small amount) into this market for fun. Last night was truly incredible to witness. Those events come once in a generation. It was a historic political moment that will literally be referenced for decades to come, much like Reagan’s debate with Mondale. Biden’s own campaign created the private debate with CNN, moved up the date, set the rules, removed the audience, muted the mics, rehearsed for over a week… and it resulted in the worst politcal debate performance in American history. Ironically, those rules and the muted mics actually made Trump appear more measured and less angry than the debates in 2016 and 2020.
This is what Nate Silver, in my opinion the best election forecaster in the game and a vocal Biden supporter, said last night:
“Holding the debate this early gave Democrats the option to pull the emergency lever and urge Biden to quit before the convention if it went really badly. Well, emergency levers exist for a reason. It went worse than I ever imagined — and I was expecting it to go badly. It’s time for Biden to consider what’s best for his party, what’s best for the country and what’s best for his legacy — and that isn’t seeking the presidency until he’s 86.”
I’m officially calling it.
June 27, 2024.
The Death of Joe Biden. (politically)