I Know Who Is Replacing Biden.

As I wrote immediately following the debate, Biden will not be running for reelection. He is simply unfit for another term and the entire country saw it. The Democratic party has no choice but to replace him at the last minute with a younger candidate. Many names have been thrown around nationally including Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Michelle Obama, JB Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, etc. Well… I now know who will be replacing Biden, and as shown below, you can take advantage in the prediction and betting markets. Let’s dive in…

As I said immediately following the debate… Biden’s political career is now over. The worst political debate performance in US history is too much to overcome, especially when his age was already a major concern. Calls for a replacement candidate are growing louder, and it’s now just a matter of time.

Who will the replacement candidate be?
Kamala Harris.

The Vice President is their only true option on such short notice (even though she will still likely lose to Trump) and I will explain why:

First, as I told Martin Shkreli, once the talks in DC began, the momentum would be too hard to fight. The snowball effect is real and once some meaningful voices inside the Democratic Party called for Biden to be replaced, others would feel safe to speak out as well. As of today, several have now publicly called for a replacement candidate, and major names like Jim Clyburn specifically said they would be united behind the Vice President.

Second, campaign funds are a major factor here. The ~$240 million raised by the Biden/Harris campaign can not be transferred legally to another candidate. It could only be used by Kamala Harris as she is on the ticket. The massive campaign war-chest that the campaign and DNC have spent years building is not going to be refunded or wasted. Kamala is the only one who would have those resources at her disposal as the candidate on top of the ticket.

Third, skipping over Kamala Harris for someone else would all but prove that she was in effect… a DEI hire. I tweeted about it the other day, as shown above. The Vice President is literally there incase the President can’t do the job. So choosing a random (white) governor instead of the (black) Vice President to replace Biden would cause chaos inside the Democratic Party. After the recent public debates on DEI and race/gender getting people positions, they could never admit that it’s true, especially not for a position as important as the Vice President of the Untied States. Even though, regardless of political party, we all know that Kamala Harris was not chosen as VP because of her merit or skills, but indeed because she was a black woman. The Democrats could simply never admit that on the biggest national stage, and therefore HAVE to choose the VP to lead the ticket. “Their own identity politics is now holding them hostage.”

Fourth, sharp bettors now agree with me as the prediction market odds are quickly moving in her favor. I placed some lunch money (small amount) myself for fun on Kamala to be the Democratic nominee. As I wrote immediately following the debate, they could stick with Biden and lose in a national landslide or do a fast swap. To me it now clear, they can’t stick with Biden and the only true replacement option for the fast swap is the Vice President.

I think this market is still undervalued, as it’s the only viable political option.
(Not financial advice. Just my personal opinions.)